lessons

1. Always have a plan, practice and collect data, in that way you'll have mental strength to deal with pressure
2. People look for a perfect ten as if it's hidden somewhere in the brain. I might as well keep trying and keep getting disappointed. Maybe the judgement criteria is wrong as opposed to the misfit. I have some high expectations for something I haven't done and it's likely to lead to disappointment. Maybe the fame, success, feeling of importance, uncertainty and the thrill attract me, as such that unless I have those, I'll never feel ten. Maybe I find it frustrated not able to naturally outperform others, which makes me upset, and find an excuse.
3. Keith said I enjoy dealing with people and qualitative aspects, which is in contrary to everything I believe before but may well be truth. I find it much cooler to follow arguments and have one that really stands out. Working with numbers sounds sexy but proves less interesting.
4. Risk parity investing centers on two ideas: stable risk premium and long-term mean reversion. In the short term, stocks market is dominated by idiosyncratic risk. Market is trending so not necessarily suitable for risk parity investing.
5. Connecting and having genuine concerns for others. Being a good person might be more important than be good at work.
6. Always sell yourself, think twice, you can't say you are not good at something when an opportunity arises. Try to seize any good opportunity. Make yourself more important. Don't be downsizing yourself. For example, when bhanu asks me about my background, I shouldn't act that humble.
7. Don't 钻牛角尖，stand outside the box for a second, if a problem cannot be solved, find a way to bypass it. Being efficient is more important.
8. Look for the information that hasn't been utilized yet.
9. When you have a stats or argument, think beyond the stats, find what it comes from, think of multiple ways to interpret the data, and fit it into a general framework. For instance, when unemployment fall and wage yoy, you should check the possibility that labor force is down.
10. When facing an argument, start with the argument on the other side, and contradict it with their logic. This way, they will not resist the idea and if you do good, they cannot argue it either.
11. Always start from a simple-line thinking, straightforward hypothesis. For example, in thinking about how short-term interest rate impacts on the growth, start with a simple definition of output and go from there.
12. 不要主动改变，不要多疑，不要窥视别人的秘密
13. Ask about the context before working on something.
14. Don't mention too much about the unpleasant experience before. Although it changes now, discomfort can be felt. Avoid the topic of me dating other girls, she hates that. It actually won't cause her to be jealous, only feel annoying.
15. 打扮的比较干净温暖，不要那种粗犷的感觉
16. 有不同意见先告诉对方具体的情境，不要马上玻璃心，同时不要假设她不直接

Strengths data

1. I'm more productive and motivated when I'm busier
2. I love to get out of my zone regularly to get some fresh thoughts.
3. My learning curve is flat initially and then takes off steep
4. I rarely give extreme assessment, chasing a golden average. Maybe my inner scale is just wrong.
5. I often have more good ideas when I feel more confident and more comfortable. How to maintain confident and manage energy is a good subject.

Leadership lessons

Ackman:
- Directness helps build better relationships
- Encourage to admit mistakes immediately (biggest risk for young people is not having been through mistakes)
-

My reflection
- Persuasion: people just listen
- Build something that I'm not good at, and leverage my strength
- Help people
- Be a model first

Stan Druckenmiller lessons

1. The way to make money is through capital preservation and home runs. It's about how much money you can make when you are right and how much money you can lose when you are wrong. Put all your eggs in one basket and look after your basket carefully. But that idea won't come every day.

2. Valuation tells you more about risk, where market could go when a catalyst hits, not the direction.

3. Liquidity is very important when it comes to the timing and risk management. Liquidity and central banks move the markets, not the earnings.

4. Best market environment for equities is steady boring growth. If the market is on fire, FED will not be your friend any more.

5. Certain events may not be positive, but market can go up on it -- if it's priced in.

6. Always look to the future, present earnings tell you nothing.

presentation

• Joined the programme early last year, feel sorry for your guys, presentation skills -> given you have a lot of training, probably tierd and starving, let me just throw some random points and see if it works
• Learn from the failure, avoid the psychological traps: use that in multiple interviews, how can i lose money after reading all those books->human is an interesting creature, you know it's wrong but still do it. eg. study, say hi to your mom. how to overcome that -> kahnman's theory, sports metopher, my experience, have some know-hows -> friends sit there and think what is suitable for them -> involve and for those of you who have an aim and want to make a break, practice, get exposure directly,build your intuition; when you look forward, you feel frustrated because you make mistakes and so many things you don't know. But when you look back, you'll be surprised how much you improved. Embrace the failure, build your sophisticated intuition. -> into next topic of being fast, being in FRM for a bit
• Keith's email: not what you see but the story behind it is more important; unfortunately we can only see the results, which makes it more important to care about the reasoning to avoid being biased ->. a lot of students only care about the result, action points but not the reasoning, example is the JPY, Nikkei trade
• Keith's email: skills are good in good times, painful in bad times - no constant thing -> ignorance, bad thing (compare HF managers and oxford students), good thing(stanley druckenmiller, Jing Huang)

risk management

First one:

• risk appreciation (junior speaks out, remember to be afraid)
• hindsight bias, cannot think that way

Second one:

• Crew resource management: junior allowed to speak out, to overcome the decision error
• Importance of simulation
• Automation leads to better human performance, but brings in some new issues. People forget how they do things before the automation. However, it still wins in the long run. 
• When facing a theory, ask deeply what that is from. The fact that it makes sense or is beautiful means nothing about their accuracy. The Henrich triangle thing has no evidence to confirm. Also the causality is important.

thoughts

remember to push people, not giving everyone a break
In a conversation, remember to involve and respond

Ray Dalio's insights
1. Open-minded: because it's so easy to make mistakes
2. Own reasoning: because being open-mind also opens you to mistakes; Ensure you listen to their reasoning and full pros and cons, before you reach your OWN decision

Meeting with Keith

• Talk to people to manage expectations, don't quit on a short notice
• don't rate like a Bell curve

Experience with my time at AHL

• Always understand the fundamental details about a certain set of data, inside out, before you can carry on any sort of analysis, keep asking why
• Plot plot plot, making it simple is a great skill
• Get a narrative, it's the single most important thing;
• Be more proactive, more talking, keep the working relationship with your colleagues, keep asking to avoid going off the track, clear up the points of confusion
• Don't have to follow everything your boss said, more proactive and propose more ideas
• Be able to say no to a project, keep that possibility alive, don't put unrealistic hope 
• When you have a hypothesis, test it and reach conclusion quickly. Big picture thinking but test specific questions.

• I think there is something wrong with my thinking process. Too critical, always think you can only test with statistical evidence. Actually statistical evidence isn't necessarily more convincing than the anecodotes. Listen to others' ideas, ask questions, and be clear with your mind what others are thinking. Engage in the discussion.

• At first, I try to test millions of possibilities, that's expecting too much.
• The frustrating thing is, you make some of your old mistakes. You might even know you are making mistakes, but you don't have enough motivation to walk out. Managing energy is crucial. You shouldn't have 侥幸心理。

Summary

• Patience and realistic
• Proactive, communicate and manage expectations
• Dare to say no
• Big picture

Question to ask Luke and Keith

• I made a mistake that when I was not familiar with the market, a bit difficult to generate some narratives. So I started by testing the data, which is time consuming and meaningless if cannot be combined with a fundamental story.
• Also expect too much. I learn that you should have a big picture view but have a specific hypothesis to test, and you cannot diverge too much, otherwise you cannot finish a single thing.
• When you don't know enough, how can you engage in a meaningful discussion with others and still make sure you are not wasting others' opinions

Luke's meeting

• Invest in yourself, slowly and patiently

Keith's meeting

• Be nice to the boss when hearing the bonus thing, you don't know what's go behind the thing
• Don't quit before money into your account